Hurricane track could pass over area on Sunday

by Bill Gates

As of Tuesday, the projected path for Hurricane Irene had it passing through the Baltimore area on Sunday.

There’s still time for the storm to take a different course, but with local memories of Tropical Storm Isabel still vivid, it’s best to prepare for the worst.

“Awareness of the effects  a large hurricane can produce is knowledge that can save your life,” wrote former Dundalk High teacher and Dundalk resident Richard Foot on his website, Foot’s Forecast.

It was Isabel which inspired Foot to create the website.

“Where the center of circulation is located, or whether Irene is a Category 2, 3, or 4, matters less than your acceptance this is a life-threatening storm that should be taken seriously if you are inside the ‘cone of effects,’” Foot wrote on the site on Tuesday.

Foot’s Forecast (www.footsforecast.org) also has advice on preparing for the storm.

Yorkway resident Ryan Krimm, a senior at Sparrows Point High and a former forecaster with Foot’s Forecast, said the models for the storm are trending east.

“If we are on the western side of the system, less wind, rain and storm surge will be a result,” Krimm said. “However, if the storm goes west, which is still a viable possibility, significant effects could be possible in Baltimore.

“The more likely scenario at this point is [Irene] passing east of Dundalk,” Krimm said.

The projected storm track as of Tuesday evening had Irene’s eye passing over Delaware at 2 p.m. on Sunday, still with hurricane-force winds and a cone-of-effect covering all of Maryland.

Dundalk-Edgemere has already experienced recent flooding due to several heavy thunderstorms over the past few weeks.

Krimm, in a story which ran in The Eagle during the first week of August, predicted a “rainier pattern” for the second half of the month.

Dundalk-Edgemere has received between 15 and 20 inches of rain just in August.

“Pieces of energy traversing across the country the past few weeks have been associated with cold front passages that have been taking their good old time to cross the area,” Krimm said.  “[That causes] the slow movement of thunderstorms, and this slow movement is why the flooding has been occurring as storms have been moving at 5 to 10 miles per hour and raining themselves out over certain areas.”

At least the extreme heat of July has left, due in part to all the storms.

Regardless of Irene’s eventual track, it’s best to take the advice offered by Foot on his site: “[Irene] could produce impacts more widespread and significant than Isabel did in 2003. It is reasonable to suggest that preparations commence in the event the storm tract does not change favorably.”Isabel was a tropical storm (winds under 75 mph). Irene could still have winds approaching 100 mph if/when it reaches Baltimore. 

Best to start preparing with that possibility in mind.